The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has named South Sudan, Burundi and the Democratic Republic of the Congo as the East African Community (EAC) member states poised for the quickest economic growth trajectories in the 2024-2025 period.
This is despite the three being the most conflict-stricken in the region.
The IMF’s latest regional economic outlook report for Sub-Saharan Africa published recently forecasts a 1.2 percent gross domestic product growth for South Sudan, from 5.6 to 6.8 percent, even as it grapples with economic disruptions and humanitarian support problems caused by the war in neighbouring Sudan.
GDP growth in Burundi is projected to jump from 4.3 to 5.4 percent and in DR Congo from 4.7 to 5.7 percent.
All three countries are included in the report’s group of countries in ‘Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations’.
Four of the other five EAC countries are below the full 1 percent growth marks, but the report does not give any particular reason(s) for the troubled trio’s exceptionally positive outlooks while citing many of their problems.
Somalia, the newest EAC member having joined just last month, is not mentioned at all. Kenya and Rwanda have the lowest growth trajectory forecasts at 0.1 and 0.3 percent respectively, but Kenya is still tops in terms of GDP estimates for 2024 at $104 billion, which places it 7th overall on the list of largest economies in the continent.
Tanzania is the only other EAC country in the top 10 for Africa with a current GDP estimate of $79 billion.
According to the report launched on April 19 during the annual IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington D.C., the economic prospects for sub-Saharan Africa are still gradually improving after the general downturn induced by the global Covid-19 pandemic.
GDP growth across the region is projected to hit 4.0 percent in 2025, after rising from 3.4 percent in 2023 to 3.8 percent in 2024, and two-thirds of the countries anticipate further growth in 2025.
The report, however, warns that risks remain as governments continue to grapple with financing shortages, high borrowing costs and impending debt repayments.
