Somalia’s recent actions have heightened tensions with Ethiopia, as the Somali government appears to be courting Egyptian military support.
Two Egyptian military planes landed at Mogadishu airport on Tuesday, delivering weapons and ammunition, according to two diplomats and a senior Somali official who spoke to Reuters under the condition of anonymity.
A video shared on social media confirmed the arrival of the planes.
This development has sparked concerns, with one diplomat warning that Somalia is “playing with fire” by antagonizing Ethiopia through its military partnership with Egypt. The Somali and Egyptian foreign ministries have not yet responded to requests for comment.
Earlier this month, Egypt’s intention to contribute troops to a new peacekeeping mission in Somalia, set to launch next year, was revealed in an African Union communique. However, Cairo has remained silent on the matter publicly.
Rashid Abdi, an analyst from the Sahan Research think-tank, cautioned that while the chances of a direct conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia remain low, the possibility of a proxy war is real, particularly if Egyptian troops are deployed along the Ethiopia-Somalia border.
Ethiopia’s foreign ministry has expressed its discontent, stating that it “cannot stand idle while other actors are taking measures to destabilize the region.” The ministry emphasized Ethiopia’s role in promoting peace and security in Somalia and the broader region, including ongoing discussions to resolve differences with Somalia. However, the ministry accused Somalia of “colluding with external actors” to destabilize the area, without explicitly naming Egypt or addressing the recent arms delivery.
Meanwhile, indirect talks between Somalia and Ethiopia, mediated by Turkey, have been ongoing since July over a contentious Somaliland deal. Ethiopia, a landlocked nation, seeks access to the sea, while Mogadishu maintains that Somaliland, which has operated with de facto autonomy for over 30 years without international recognition, remains part of Somalia. A third round of talks is anticipated next month.
