Mozambicans will head to the polls on Wednesday, October 9th to elect a new president, with hopes that the next leader will bring peace to the oil- and gas-rich northern province of Cabo Delgado, which has been ravaged by a jihadist insurgency for nearly seven years.
On Wednesday, around 17 million voters will cast their ballots for the next president, along with 250 members of parliament and provincial assemblies. Current President Filipe Nyusi, having served two terms, is not eligible to run again.
Throughout the six-week campaign, which concluded on Sunday, the leading candidates emphasized the importance of ending the violence in the northern region, although none presented a detailed plan to resolve the ongoing conflict. Since 2017, Mozambique has been battling an Islamic State-linked insurgency in Cabo Delgado, which has been marked by brutal attacks, including beheadings and widespread killings.
The conflict has displaced approximately 1.3 million people, although around 600,000 have since returned to their homes. Many of those who returned found their communities in ruins, with homes, markets, schools, churches, and health facilities destroyed, according to the United Nations refugee agency.
Candidates concluded their campaigns in the northern and central provinces, which are considered key voting regions. They vowed to address the development challenges exacerbated by the insurgency.
Daniel Chapo, the presidential candidate for the ruling party Front for the Liberation of Mozambique (Frelimo), has been telling supporters that peace is necessary for Cabo Delgado to rebuild. “The first objective of governance is to work to end terrorism using all available means to return peace. Peace is the condition for development,” Chapo said during a rally in Pemba, the provincial capital of Cabo Delgado.
Frelimo, which has governed Mozambique since its independence in 1975, is widely expected to win the election.
Lutero Simango, the candidate for the Democratic Movement of Mozambique, focused his campaign on the central and northern regions. He pledged to tackle the country’s lack of medicines in public hospitals, rising unemployment, and extreme poverty.
Independent candidate Venacio Mondlane also promised to address the violence in Cabo Delgado, stating, “From the moment my government is in place, I can assure you that kidnappings happening in the country, including terrorism in Cabo Delgado, will be wiped out in one year,” which drew cheers from his supporters.
Corruption and poverty have also been central themes in the campaign. Mozambique faces high unemployment and hunger, worsened by severe drought linked to the El Niño weather pattern. The United Nations World Food Program estimates that 1.3 million Mozambicans are dealing with severe food shortages due to the drought.
Frelimo’s rule has been marred by corruption scandals, including the infamous “tuna bond” scandal, which saw politicians jailed for accepting bribes to arrange secret loan guarantees for government-controlled fishing companies. The scandal plunged the country into financial crisis as the International Monetary Fund suspended financial support, leaving Mozambique burdened with $2 billion in hidden debt.
A delegation of 52 election observers from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) has been sent to Mozambique to monitor the elections. The observer mission has urged the country’s electoral bodies to ensure impartiality during the polls. However, last year’s local elections were marred by accusations of widespread vote-rigging and fraud, leading to violent protests after Frelimo won 64 of 65 municipalities.
Political analyst Dercia Alfazema noted that the political landscape remains largely unchanged from previous elections. “The political parties already have their bases in the electorate, and during the campaign, we did not see anything different in relation to the previous elections. We would need something drastic to happen for Frelimo to lose these elections,” she said.
Borges Nhamire, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, warned that the next president will face significant challenges. “The president to be elected will inherit a very difficult situation because he is in transition during a period of war, and every transition that takes place during a period of war is very difficult,” Nhamire explained.
