The leaders of Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea—countries with historically strained relations with Ethiopia—recently convened in Asmara, Eritrea’s capital, to discuss regional cooperation.
A statement issued at the conclusion of the summit emphasized “respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity” of nations in the Horn of Africa, hinting at Ethiopia’s aspirations for access to a sea port without directly naming the country.
This meeting takes place amid a growing rift between Ethiopia and its neighbors. A recent diplomatic disagreement has led Somalia to forge closer ties with Egypt and Eritrea, both of which have longstanding disputes with Ethiopia.
These escalating tensions have sparked concerns that the region may be on the brink of conflict.
“This is an axis against Addis Ababa,” said Hassan Khannenje, Director of the Horn International Institute for Strategic Studies, in an interview with the BBC’s Focus on Africa. “It’s an attempt to consolidate pressure against Ethiopia.”
However, Somalia’s Information Minister, Daud Aweis, rejected any claims of hostility toward Ethiopia, explaining that the meeting was focused solely on strengthening cooperation between the three countries. “We are not seeking to provoke Addis Ababa,” he told Focus on Africa. “Ethiopia is our neighbor, and despite recent instability, we stand for peace. This meeting in Asmara had nothing to do with Ethiopia.”
A photograph released after the summit showed Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki clasping hands with Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, symbolizing the unity of their efforts. A statement indicated that the three leaders had agreed to support the development of Somalia’s state institutions, bolster its federal army, and enhance efforts to combat terrorism.
This was President Sisi’s first visit to Asmara, while President Mohamud had made three trips to Eritrea earlier this year.
Ethiopia, a longtime supporter of the Somali government in its battle against the al-Qaeda-linked militant group al-Shabab, has recently strained its relationship with Mogadishu. Somalia is outraged over Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland, a self-declared republic that Somalia still considers part of its territory, to lease a section of Somaliland’s coastline.
Tensions between Addis Ababa and Cairo have also been simmering for over a decade, primarily due to Ethiopia’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the River Nile, which Egypt fears could reduce its critical water supply.
Adding to the tension, last month, Egypt sent a shipment of military equipment to Somalia, following the arrival of two Egyptian military planes in August, loaded with arms and ammunition.
Once hailed as a potential peacemaker in the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has seen his relations with Eritrea deteriorate following the end of the Tigray civil war. Although Eritrea supported Ethiopia during the conflict, it has been less enthusiastic about the peace accord that ended the fighting in 2022.
Further complicating the dynamics, Ethiopia’s recent ambitions to secure access to a Red Sea port have exacerbated tensions with Eritrea, fueling fears of further instability in the region.
