A recent Reuters poll of 14 analysts predicts Egypt’s annual inflation rate will slightly decrease to 12.6% in March from 12.8% in February.
This downward trend might prompt the Central Bank of Egypt to cut interest rates in its upcoming meeting on April 17.
However, analysts caution that global market volatility, partly due to US President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes, could lead to a more cautious approach.
The inflation rate has been declining since its peak of 38% in September 2023, supported by a $24 billion real estate investment from Abu Dhabi and an $8 billion financial support package from the International Monetary Fund.
Some analysts, like Sri Virinchi Kadiyala from Abu Dhabi’s ADCB, expect a slight decrease in inflation due to softer food and education costs.
However, others, such as Farouk Soussa from Goldman Sachs, suggest the central bank might be cautious given the external economic backdrop.
The government statistics agency CAPMAS is set to release the official inflation figures on Thursday.
If the predicted decrease occurs, it could have implications for Egypt’s economic policies and interest rates.
