Mali’s ruling military junta faces a key moment on Friday, as public discontent brews despite its decision to suspend all political activities. The government, which seized power in coups in 2020 and 2021, announced the indefinite ban on political party operations and activities on Wednesday, citing the need to preserve public order.
The move came ahead of planned anti-government demonstrations in the capital, Bamako and the city of Ségou. Though Friday’s protest has been officially postponed, calls for civil disobedience are still circulating widely on social media.
Criticism of the junta has been growing after a national council proposed granting transitional president Assimi Goïta a fresh five-year mandate and dissolving all political parties. Those proposals sparked unprecedented protests in Bamako on May 3 and 4, where hundreds gathered to demand democratic elections and denounce what they see as creeping authoritarianism.
While Mali’s Ministry of Security and Civil Protection has yet to respond to inquiries about the suspension or protests, analysts say the coming days will determine whether public resistance to the military regime will grow or fade.
“If people are intimidated into silence, then this will probably just go away,” said Benedict Manzin of the strategic consultancy Sibylline. “But if crowds grow and there’s a crackdown, that could spark a much wider backlash.”
Many demonstrators are driven by a range of grievances beyond political freedoms, including widespread insecurity, rising costs of living, persistent power outages, and mounting unemployment. A security analyst in Bamako, who spoke anonymously for safety reasons, said: “The longer this goes on, the more unsustainable it becomes.”
Despite the military government’s promise to restore security and defeat jihadist insurgents, the situation has deteriorated. Armed groups, including Al Qaeda-linked Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), remain active and have extended their reach into areas surrounding Bamako. Last September, JNIM claimed responsibility for a brazen attack targeting an elite police academy and the capital’s airport.
In response, military leaders across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have increasingly leaned on anti-French, anti-colonial rhetoric to shore up public support. However, analysts warn that such rhetoric is losing its effect amid worsening living conditions.
“Eventually, people want stability and economic well-being,” said Manzin. “The slogans only go so far.”
Even so, experts suggest that real threats to the regime are more likely to emerge within the military than from street protests. “A wave of protests may contribute to unrest,” said Byron Cabrol of Dragonfly Intelligence, “but it’s unlikely to push insiders to act unless combined with other internal pressures.”
For now, Malians watch and wait to see if Friday’s protest will ignite a broader movement or fade under the weight of repression.
