With President Salva Kiir of South Sudan undergoing medical tests abroad, long-standing concerns about his health have resurfaced—alongside signs that a carefully orchestrated succession plan may be unfolding.
Kiir, 73, returned to Juba on Wednesday after spending at least 10 days in the United Arab Emirates. Officially, state media said the president had traveled to explore economic opportunities for the country. However, sources within his entourage, speaking anonymously to AFP, confirmed he had traveled for medical evaluations, further fueling rumors that have swirled for years about the leader’s well-being.
Since gaining independence in 2011, South Sudan—the world’s youngest country—has struggled with poverty, instability, and brutal conflict. A devastating civil war between Kiir and his former deputy Riek Machar claimed an estimated 400,000 lives between 2013 and 2018.
Now, after a brief period of relative calm, new political tensions have erupted—fueled, analysts say, by Kiir’s apparent efforts to position businessman and political newcomer Benjamin Bol Mel as his successor.
Bol Mel, a wealthy construction magnate with close ties to the Kiir family, has seen a rapid political ascent. In February, he was appointed second vice-president. In May, he was named deputy head of the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM).
Despite his growing clout, Bol Mel’s reputation is contentious. The United States sanctioned him in 2017 for alleged corruption, and critics accuse him of using his proximity to the president to enrich himself and consolidate power.
His emergence has coincided with a calculated sidelining of political opponents. Machar, Kiir’s main rival during the civil war, was placed under house arrest in March. Several of his allies were detained, while armed clashes targeted military bases loyal to Machar’s Nuer ethnic group. According to the United Nations, more than 700 people were killed in violence between January and March this year alone.
Within South Sudan, Kiir’s health is a taboo topic. “If you want to visit a grave quickly, talk about it,” a local activist told AFP anonymously, highlighting the dangers of discussing the issue publicly.
But signs of frailty have become increasingly difficult to ignore. When Kiir hosted Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni in April, observers noted Museveni’s sprightliness at age 80 compared to Kiir’s slow, labored movements. Upon his return from the UAE this week, state television cameras avoided showing the president walking.
During his absence, Bol Mel presided over a cabinet meeting—a clear indicator of his growing authority. “This seems like a long-planned script now being executed step-by-step,” said Wani Michael, a South Sudanese political commentator in exile. “Removing Riek [Machar] was crucial. He would never have accepted Bol Mel’s rise without resistance.”
Further consolidating control, Kiir dismissed his long-serving intelligence chief, Akol Koor, last October—a move viewed as eliminating another potential challenger to Bol Mel.
Despite increased violence, South Sudan has not descended into full-scale war, a development some analysts attribute to a weakened opposition and a population weary of conflict.
“It’s devastating on a humanitarian level,” said a diplomat based in Juba, “but far from the horrors of the civil war years.”
Still, the emerging political arrangement faces legitimacy issues. Elections, long promised as a path to democracy, were postponed yet again last year to 2026—delaying what would be the country’s first national vote since independence.
“There is no shortcut to legitimacy except through elections,” said analyst James Boboya. “Bol Mel’s rise may be carefully managed, but it’s not validated by the people.”
Edmund Yakani, a prominent civil society leader and head of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organization, echoed that concern.
“Elections are the only viable way for a peaceful transfer of power,” he said. “South Sudanese want the ballot to shape their future—not bullets, and certainly not imposed leadership.”
As the nation awaits further clarity on its leader’s health and the political road ahead, the quiet succession drama unfolding in Juba could shape South Sudan’s future for years to come.
