On Wednesday, Somaliland, the self-declared republic on the northwest tip of Somalia, will hold a highly anticipated presidential election against a backdrop of regional tension. Having unilaterally declared independence from Somalia in 1991, Somaliland has since enjoyed relative stability and has established its own currency, passports, and military, though it remains unrecognized by any country.
Now, the territory finds itself at the center of a diplomatic dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia, with international observers warning of possible escalation. In January, Somaliland’s President Muse Bihi signed an agreement with Ethiopia to lease 20 kilometers (12 miles) of Somaliland’s Red Sea coastline to its landlocked neighbor, a move he claims could prompt Ethiopia to formally recognize Somaliland—a promise Addis Ababa has yet to confirm.
The deal has sparked outrage in Somalia, leading to both verbal clashes and military tensions with Ethiopia, raising alarms within the international community. Despite the controversy, Bihi’s main opponents in the election, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi (known as “Irro”) and Faysal Ali Warabe, have refrained from condemning the agreement.
Bihi, who has led Somaliland since 2017 as head of the Kulmiye party, is running on a platform promising to advance the Red Sea deal if re-elected. However, local political analyst Guleid Ahmed Jama believes that Somaliland’s 1.2 million voters are more concerned with economic stability and peace than with foreign policy moves.
Opposition leaders have voiced strong criticisms of Bihi’s time in office, with some accusing him of exacerbating clan divides and weakening the region’s stability, particularly after violent clashes in the Sool region in 2023. Hood Abdullahi Adan, an opposition supporter, contends that Bihi’s tenure has been marked by “conflict, inflation, and hunger,” and argues that the region has regressed under his rule.
The election campaign has been marked by lively rallies, although tensions have surfaced, with the opposition accusing Bihi of divisive tactics. Bihi’s main rival, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi of the Waddani party, is a former speaker of the Somaliland parliament and an ex-ambassador who promises to unify the region, despite offering few specific policy changes. As Guleid Ahmed Jama observed, “While there is little ideological difference between the main parties, the personalities of the contenders are significant in shaping Somaliland’s future.”
With the election underway, the people of Somaliland are voting in what could be a pivotal moment, one that may determine the region’s path toward stability or further regional friction.
