The African National Congress (ANC) appears set to lose the parliamentary majority it has held for three decades, according to partial results from South Africa’s national election.
This potential loss marks the most significant political change since the end of apartheid.
With results in from 13.9% of polling stations, the ANC holds 42.6% of the vote. The pro-business Democratic Alliance (DA) has 25.8%, and the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) have 8.5%, as per the electoral commission’s data.
If these trends continue, the ANC will need to form a coalition with other parties to govern, which could introduce unprecedented political instability in the coming weeks and months.
“Checks and balances on the ANC’s power could emerge, but the risk lies in potential infighting that could hamper governance,” said Simon Harvey, head of foreign exchange analysis at Monex Europe. He added that the coalition formation’s speed would be crucial. “A prolonged process might lead to political gridlock,” he noted.
Market reactions reflected the uncertainty, with the rand falling over 1% against the U.S. dollar, hitting its weakest level in four weeks. The wider equity index dropped more than 2%, marking its worst day in six weeks, and international bonds lost as much as 1 cent per dollar.
The ANC has won every national election since the historic 1994 election, which ended apartheid and brought Nelson Mandela to power. However, support has waned due to high unemployment, crime, power outages, and corruption.
Based on early results, the ANC is projected to secure around 42% of the vote, according to projections by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, shared with the state broadcaster SABC. In 2019, the ANC won 57.5% of the vote, with the DA at 20.8% and the EFF at 10.8%, on a 66% voter turnout, which is expected to be higher this year.
Under the constitution, the newly elected National Assembly will choose the next president. Despite the ANC likely remaining the largest party, its leader, Cyril Ramaphosa, may face a leadership challenge if the final results reflect poor performance.
In Gauteng province, early results show the ANC at 38%, the DA at 27.8%, and the EFF at 10.9%. In KwaZulu-Natal, a new party led by former president Jacob Zuma, uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), is performing well with 42.7%, compared to the ANC’s 21.4%.
Zuma, who resigned in 2018 amid scandals, now supports MK, which is drawing votes from both the ANC and the EFF in KwaZulu-Natal.
The electoral commission has up to seven days to declare full results, but it typically does so faster. In 2019, the final results were announced three days after the election.
The new parliament must convene within 14 days of the final results and elect the president, suggesting that if the ANC loses its majority, intense negotiations to form a new government could ensue.
