Nigeria’s inflation expectations index fell marginally to 41.4 points in January 2026 from 41.7 points in December 2025, reflecting a slight improvement in price outlook among consumers and businesses.
Despite this, rising energy costs, transport expenses, and exchange rate pressure continue to weigh heavily on households and firms.
According to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Statistics Department, 49.5% of respondents described inflation as high in January, compared to 50.2% in December.
The survey tracks how households and businesses view current price levels and what they expect soon.
Energy costs remain the biggest concern, with businesses and households scoring petrol, diesel, and electricity pressures at 83.5% and 82.8% respectively. Transport costs ranked next, with businesses scoring 79.8% and households 82%, highlighting the ripple effect of fuel prices across logistics and daily mobility.
The weaker naira has pushed up import costs, while security challenges continue to disrupt farming and distribution, adding pressure to food prices.
Micro businesses and rural residents reported higher inflation pressure, and middle-income earners earning between N150,001 and N200,000 monthly felt the intense pressure most.
The survey also found that 86% of participants say central bank communication influences their inflation outlook, underlining the role of policy guidance in shaping public expectations.
Looking ahead, expectations remain largely stable, with 45.9% of respondents expecting their spending to rise in the next month.
