Guinea-Bissau’s upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections campaign officially begins on Saturday, setting the stage for a high-stakes vote on November 23 largely expected to favour incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embalo following the disqualification of his main rivals.
For the first time since independence from Portugal in 1974, the historic African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) will not appear on the ballot. The party, along with the opposition Pai Terra Ranka coalition led by Embalo’s chief opponent, Domingos Simoes Pereira, was barred by the Supreme Court for submitting its application too late.
The exclusion of both PAIGC and Pereira, a former prime minister and long-time rival of Embalo has dramatically reshaped the electoral landscape, leaving 12 presidential contenders and 14 political parties, including Embalo’s No Kumpu Guine coalition, to contest the 102 parliamentary seats.
On Friday, the army announced that it had foiled “an attempt to subvert the constitutional order” and detained several senior officers allegedly plotting to disrupt the elections. “No disorder will be tolerated,” Embalo warned after a cabinet meeting.
Guinea-Bissau, a nation of about 860,000 registered voters, has a long history of political instability, with four successful coups and several failed ones since gaining independence.
Embalo, first elected in 2019, had previously said he would serve only one term. However, his decision to dissolve the opposition-led parliament in 2023 after what he called an attempted coup, and the subsequent postponement of elections, drew criticism from opponents accusing him of seeking to extend his rule.
With the country’s major opposition figures sidelined, analysts say the November poll is widely seen as a test of Guinea-Bissau’s fragile democracy and Embalo’s grip on power.
