Tensions between longtime foes Ethiopia and Eritrea are escalating, with officials in Ethiopia’s Tigray region warning of an imminent war.
This comes after a faction of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) seized control of the northern town of Adigrat, sparking concerns of a new conflict.
The situation is dire, with General Tsadkan Gebretensae, vice president of the interim administration in Tigray, stating that “at any moment war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could break out.” The region is still reeling from a 2020-2022 civil war that killed hundreds of thousands of people.
Eritrea has ordered a nationwide military mobilization, while Ethiopia has deployed troops to the Eritrean border.
The international community is watching with bated breath, as a war between the two nations would have devastating humanitarian consequences.
The rift between Ethiopia and Eritrea dates back to Eritrea’s 30-year fight for independence, which ended in 1993.
The neighbors then fought a border war from 1998 to 2000 and remained formally at war until 2018, when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki agreed to normalize ties.
However, the exclusion of Eritrea from subsequent peace negotiations and Abiy’s repeated declarations that landlocked Ethiopia has a right to sea access have chilled relations once again.
Eritrea has signed a security pact with Egypt and Somalia, which is seen as a countermeasure to Ethiopia’s potential expansionist ambitions.
As tensions continue to escalate, the international community is urging restraint. Payton Knopf and Alexander Rondos, former U.S. and EU envoys to the region, warn that “the deterioration of the political and security situation in Tigray is dry tinder waiting for a match.”
