Egypt’s annual urban inflation likely edged higher last month, reversing two months of easing, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
The median estimate from 17 analysts puts June headline inflation at 15.1%, up from 14.6% in May. Forecasts ranged between 14.5% and 16.1%.
The pickup is expected to come from stronger food inflation and unfavourable base effects, which outweighed the fading impact of earlier fuel price hikes and currency moves linked to regional tensions.
CAPMAS is due to publish the June data on Thursday. That is the same day the Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meets.
Analysts are split on how high inflation will go from here.
What analysts said:
- Barclays – James Swanston: Expects the June print to accelerate due to food and some non-core items. He sees inflation peaking above 19% in the third quarter.
- Emirates NBD – Daniel Richards: Predicts inflation will start rising again after two months of declines, with a peak around 17% in July and August.
- HC Securities – Heba Monir: Sees a much milder rise to about 14.7%, helped by falling poultry prices and stable vegetable costs.
- Thndr – Esraa Ahmed: Notes that any cooling in food prices could be cancelled out by a negative base effect.
- Goldman Sachs: Says upside risks have “weakened materially” as energy prices moderate following a U.S.-Iran understanding.
- Capital Economics: Points to Egypt’s IMF staff-level agreement, with the Fund citing “strong policy responses” to recent geopolitical shocks.
For context, headline inflation hit 15.2% in March, its highest since May 2025, before slipping to 14.6% in May, the lowest since February.
Core inflation is also forecast to rise. Five analysts expect a median reading of 14.4% in June, compared with 13.8% in May.
